SECTION 1 -- FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
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Corn, soybeans and soymeal continued lower this week, as had been expected but now traders in the USA are saying that bad weather in the USA and a lack of farmer selling could cause prices to move higher next week. Possibly higher, but the overall trend for prices is to lower levels in coming weeks unless there is a very serious change in the Brazil/Argentina situation.
At one time this week corn prices were at a four month low before bouncing up a little but the weakness in price is still there. The supply and demand report from the USDA on Tuesday should set the new trend for prices for a few days.
Soybean prices were up and down and up and down all week but ended quite quietly on Friday with the weeks prices for both soybeans and soymeal close to unchanged on the week. There was talk in the trade that prices may have dropped too quickly in recent weeks but if you look at the April/May prices from Argentina and Brazil then you see how much more room that there is for prices to drop. However until the new South American crop comes to market there is still only the USA crop and prices will tend to dip and dive quite a bit.
As with corn price the prices for soybeans and soymeal will see some effect from the USDA report on Tuesday.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
Corn FOB NOLA USA------------------USD 165 m/t Feb, 166 Mar/Apr
Corn FOB Argentina port--------------USD 156 m/t Mar, 160 Apr/May
Corn FOB Brazil port-------------------USD 173 m/t Mar/Apr/May
Sorghum FOB NOLA USA-------------USD 170/175 m/t Mar/Apr
Soymeal 48 pro, FOB NOLA----------USD 353 Feb, 346 Mar, 329 Apr
Soymeal 44 pro, FOB NOLA----------USD 342 Feb, 335 Mar, 318 Apr
Soymeal Argentina - Rotterdam------USD 390/395 m/t
Soymeal FOB Argentina---------------USD 338/345 m/t Feb/Mar, 270 Apr
Soymeal 48 Brazil - Rotterdam-------USD 397/400 m/t
Soymeal FOB Brazil--------------------USD 330>325 m/t Feb/Mar, 275 Apr
Soymeal 48 Indian FOB----------------USD 385/390
Bulk vessel shipments – minimum 5000 m/t
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Corn Gluten Feed USA FOB NOLA----USD 145/150 m/t – Feb/Mar
Corn Gluten Meal USA FOB NOLA----USD 655/660 m/t – Feb/Mar
DDGS 36 profat USA FOB NOLA.-----USD 159>>144 m/t – Feb-Apr
Container shipments – minimum 200 m/t
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Corn gluten meal Indian 60 pro-------USD 830/850 m/t CNF Egypt/Africa
Corn gluten meal USA 60 pro -----------USD 820/830 m/t CNF South Africa
The following indications are at producer's factory – ex-works in bulk
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Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 pro---------USD 350/355 m/t
Feather meal 80 protein-------------------USD 510/530 m/t
Poultry meal 57 pro, East Coast----------USD 400/420 m/t
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When you look at the trade reports for the sales price of animal protein products to various world markets you see a tremendous range of prices for protein from USA, Argentina, Paraguay, Australia/NZ and Europe. Of course we all know why the European is lower priced, at least we do if we have read the Category 3 regulations, Paraguay has been lower priced due to some quality problems with past shipments but both USA and Australia/NZ with their higher protein levels are premium priced origins. Some of the higher price for these origins is due to import restrictions in particular countries that limits origins but there is also a general agreement that the overall quality is better and more consistent.
With the recent drop in prices for soymeal many buyers have been looking for a drop in animal protein prices but the demand for meat and bone meal, poultry meal, feathermeal, etc have been keeping export prices higher than many buyers would like.
Argentina meat and bone meal prices are firm and export demand has been very strong. Poultry meal and blood meal have been very hard to find but there is a feeling in the market that USA origin feathermeal prices could drop some in coming weeks as domestic demand is expected to drop in advance of the spring/summer feeding seasons in the USA, as happens most years.
There is still a great deal of demand for USA origin corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed and DDGS in bulk containers but USA shippers have been suffering from a severe shortage of containers and it is expected the container rates will increase USD 300 per 20 foot container on March 1st --- this will push prices up by close to USD 15 m/t. Currently it is difficult for containers to compete against bulk vessel shipments to those destinations that have both types of shipment
As to prices, with the strong demand for all types of proteins it is very difficult to forecast a serious drop in prices, as not all end users can use lower priced soymeal to replace many proteins. Soymeal is expected to continue lower but will other proteins.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES .. PERUVIAN
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Fishmeal prices remained the same again this week as the buying interest for the small available amounts has dropped of a little – also, with the upcoming holidays in major markets in Asia, the sellers expect that the market will be quiet for a couple of weeks. However it is not expected that there will be any demand related drop in prices as there is still a very limited supply of fishmeal available from Peru. With Peru being the major supplier of fishmeal to world markets there tends to be more attention to the Peruvian situation than to some other smaller producing areas.
Looking at the trade reports this week it seems that the business for the next fishing season is building with producers having booked quite a bit of business to large buyers in Asia. One trade reports calculates that the Peru fishmeal market is current oversold by about 100,000 m/t, of course most of this is fishmeal for the next fishing season. Next fishing season in Peru should be in late April with new production ready for shipment in May.
The fishmeal analogue business has created lots of business interest but, as reported in a previous report, there seem to be about a million complications with animal protein and GMO restrictions that is going to make shipments take much longer than originally hoped.
One more point on fishmeal, there seems to be more and more indications that Peru/Chile will experience an El Nino event this year and just the indications are enough to keep prices high and pre-season purchases at good levels. Those buyers who must have fishmeal for their aquafeed formulations are concerned that supplies may drop and they don't want to be left searching everywhere for good quality aqua-grade fishmeal --- so many are booking shipment as soon as possible with producers for the next fishing season.
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Peru .. indication fishmeal prices.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE FOB CONTAINER AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specifications----------------------FOB Peru $
FAQ basis 65 protein----------------1615/1630 m/t
FAQ 65 protein gtee----------------- 1615/1630 m/t
FAQ 66 protein gtee----------------- 1630/1645 m/t
FAQ 67 protein gtee------------------1640/1655 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam----------1630/1650 m/t
67 pro standard steam--------------1650/1670 m/t
67 pro 150 TVN----------------------1660/1680 m/t
67 pro 120 TVN-----------------------1675/1695 m/t
67 pro 1000 hist, 120 TVN----------1690/1710 m/t
67 pro 500 hist, 120 TVN------------1700/1720 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk-------------------875/890 m/t
Fish oil – crude flexitank------------1025/1050 m/t
Fish oil – crude drums--------------1125/1150 m/t
Fish oil – Omega 3 gtee ------------1475/1500 m/t
Very best regards
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2010 Wayne S. Bacon